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Taça de Portugal
Referee: Cláudio Pereira
Caldas
S
1–1
Full-time
Benfica
S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caldas Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
0%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
3,0
2,2
Conceded
0,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sanjoanense 3 3 0 0 +6 9
2 São João Ver 2 2 0 0 +9 6
3 Beira-Mar 2 2 0 0 +9 6
4 FC Serpa 3 2 0 1 +8 6
5 Dumiense 2 2 0 0 +8 6
6 Pêro Pinheiro 2 2 0 0 +7 6
7 Vianense 2 2 0 0 +6 6
8 Montalegre 2 2 0 0 +6 6
9 Valadares Gaia 2 2 0 0 +5 6
10 Fontinhas 3 2 0 1 +5 6
11 Academico Viseu 2 2 0 0 +5 6
12 Moreirense 2 2 0 0 +5 6
13 Belenenses 2 2 0 0 +5 6
14 Felgueiras 1932 2 2 0 0 +4 6
15 Nacional 2 2 0 0 +4 6
16 Sertanense 2 2 0 0 +4 6
17 Farense 2 2 0 0 +4 6
18 Vilaverdense 2 2 0 0 +3 6
19 Mafra 2 2 0 0 +3 6
20 Olhanense 3 2 0 1 +2 6
21 Canelas 2010 3 2 0 1 +2 6
22 Bragança 2 2 0 0 +2 6
23 Tirsense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
24 Varzim 2 2 0 0 +2 6
25 Alverca 2 1 1 0 +2 4
26 Pombal 2 1 1 0 +2 4
27 Tondela 2 1 1 0 +2 4
28 Penafiel 2 1 1 0 +1 4
29 Paredes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
30 Oliveira Hospital 2 1 1 0 +1 4
31 Camacha 2 1 1 0 +1 4
32 Oriental Lisboa 3 1 1 1 +0 4
33 Benfica Castelo Branco 2 1 0 1 +7 3
34 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +5 3
35 Fafe 2 1 0 1 +4 3
36 Vitoria Setubal 1 1 0 0 +4 3
37 Merelinense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
38 Caldas 1 1 0 0 +3 3
39 Gil Vicente 1 1 0 0 +3 3
40 Juventude Évora 2 1 0 1 +2 3
41 Courense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
42 Oliveirense 2 1 0 1 +2 3
43 Guimaraes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
44 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +2 3
45 CF Os Belenenses 2 1 0 1 +1 3
46 Amora 2 1 0 1 +1 3
47 Rabo Peixe 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Ferreiras 2 1 0 1 +1 3
49 Real 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 Estoril 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Anadia 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 Trofense 2 1 0 1 +1 3
53 Pevidem 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 UD da Serra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
56 Os Marialvas 2 1 0 1 +0 3
57 Gondomar 2 1 0 1 +0 3
58 Resende 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Sintrense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Arronches e Benfica 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 União de Leiria 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 União Santarém 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Lajense 2 1 0 1 -1 3
64 Lagos 2 1 0 1 -1 3
65 Oriental Dragon 2 1 0 1 -1 3
66 Joane 2 1 0 1 -2 3
67 Vilafranquense 2 1 0 1 -2 3
68 Imortal Albufeira 2 1 0 1 -2 3
69 Praiense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
70 AR São Martinho 1 0 1 0 +0 1
71 Guarda Desportiva 1 0 1 0 +0 1
72 Vizela 1 0 1 0 +0 1
73 União de Tomar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
74 Estrela 1 0 1 0 +0 1
75 Machico 1 0 1 0 +0 1
76 Academica 1 0 1 0 +0 1
77 Recreativa de Lamelas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Freamunde 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 São Roque (Açores) 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Monção 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Leça 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 1º Dezembro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Vila Meã 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Atlético CP 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 SC Paivense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Rebordosa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Alcains 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Madalena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Amarante 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Marinhense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Santa Eulália 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Alpendorada 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Lusitânia Lourosa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Águeda 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Monte Trigo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Vasco Gama VF do Campo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Silves 1 0 0 1 -2 0
103 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
104 Atlético Arcos 1 0 0 1 -2 0
105 Vila Cortez 1 0 0 1 -2 0
106 Torreense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
107 Vila Caíz 1 0 0 1 -2 0
108 UD Rio Maior 1 0 0 1 -2 0
109 Comércio Indústria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
110 Régua 1 0 0 1 -2 0
111 Lusitano Évora 1911 1 0 0 1 -2 0
112 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Culatrense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 CD Olivais e Moscavide 1 0 0 1 -2 0
115 Coruchense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 GR Vigor Mocidade 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Santa Clara 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Salgueiros 1 0 0 1 -3 0
120 Atlético Reguengos 1 0 0 1 -3 0
121 Mondinense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
122 Brito 1 0 0 1 -3 0
123 Moncarapachense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
124 Lusitano FCV 1 0 0 1 -3 0
125 Castrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
126 Loures 1 0 0 1 -3 0
127 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -3 0
128 SC Covilha 1 0 0 1 -3 0
129 Fabril Barreiro 1 0 0 1 -4 0
130 Pedrógão São Pedro 1 0 0 1 -4 0
131 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -4 0
132 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -4 0
133 Vilar de Perdizes 1 0 0 1 -4 0
134 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -5 0
135 Rebordelo 1 0 0 1 -5 0
136 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1 0 0 1 -5 0
137 Moura 1 0 0 1 -5 0
138 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
139 Mortágua 1 0 0 1 -6 0
140 Sporting Mêda 1 0 0 1 -6 0
141 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -8 0
142 1º Maio Funchal 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Cláudio Pereira · 78 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.