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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

FC Serpa

S S

0–3

Full-time

Gil Vicente

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Serpa Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

5,5

3,0

Scored

5,5

1,2

Conceded

0,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+5,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
10	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Sertanense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Canelas 2010	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
18	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
29	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
30	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
31	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
33	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
34	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
42	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
65	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
66	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
124	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
125	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
126	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
127	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
128	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
131	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
132	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
133	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
134	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
135	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
136	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
11	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
12	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
15	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
72	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
38	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
39	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Serpa Gil Vicente

15′

⚽ Rui Martins 1–0

own goal

25′

⚽ A. Alipourghara 1–1

Half-time 1–1

João Mucuia 🔁

↦ Rui Martins

46′

47′

🟨 B. Aouacheria

54′

🔁 Carraça

↦ Danilo Veiga

54′

🔁 J. Boselli

↦ M. Arai

54′

⚽ M. Arai 1–2

64′

🔁 G. Aburjania

↦ K. Fujimoto

Marquinhos 🔁

↦ M. Abdulai

71′

Wilson Pina 🔁

↦ Pedro Seco

71′

74′

🔁 Fran Navarro

↦ Matheus Bueno

74′

🔁 Pedro Tiba

↦ B. Aouacheria

António Maior 🔁

↦ Iaquinta

75′

Gonçalo Biscoito 🔁

↦ T. Niougoussa

80′

85′

🟨 H. Gomes

95′

🟨 Carraca

Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

FC Serpa

Titinho

Yaka Medina

Rui Martins

T. Niougoussa

Rodrigo Souto

Diogo Conceição

Pedro Seco

Gonçalo Serrão

M. Abdulai

Iaquinta

Diogo Balau

Bench (9)

João Mucuia

Marquinhos

Wilson Pina

António Maior

Gonçalo Biscoito

André Cachola

Hugo Abreu

Pedro Francisco

Rúben Santos

Coach: João Daniel

Gil Vicente

Brian Araújo

Rúben Fernandes

Henrique Gomes

Manuel Lopes

Danilo Veiga

M. Arai

Vitor Carvalho

Matheus Bueno

K. Fujimoto

B. Aouacheria

A. Alipourghara

Bench (9)

Carraça

J. Boselli

G. Aburjania

Fran Navarro

Pedro Tiba

E. Hackman

Lucas Cunha

Adrián Marín

Daniel Silva

Coach: Ivo Vieira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

1. Oct TP 3 years ago

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

5,6 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

28,5 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

FC Serpa

Gil Vicente

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee